Saturday, November 08, 2003
Ask for my opinion? now ya dun it!
Seems like a kind of open ended debate, so let me start by saying I believe I am a bigger pile of contradictions than John. But it makes sense to me...
I think it's pointless to argue republican vs. democrat, most are the same within a small margin. Witness how many politicians switch parties. If I were to classify myself I would be a social or commune capitalist. yes, contradictions abound. This picture perfectly describes my world view.
I also think it's pointless to argue that we are spending too much money on the war, or how better that money could be spent. Who are we kidding, it wouldn't be better spent. If we didn't do Afghanistan and Iraq, it would have been wasted on something, and it's a good chance whatever spending would replace it would have been more wasteful then securing cheap stable oil supplies for our future. It would have been very wasteful to spend this money in Alaska instead. I don't agree with the war, I don't agree with the lies that were floated beforehand to garner support and obfuscate the reason behind the war, and I don't agree with the continued lies as to the true scope of the war.
But since it is done, we should do it right. Where is our long term plan? Where is the Marshall Plan for the middle east? Without a plan to guarantee stability there will be no private investment made in Afghanistan or Iraq from abroad. They can't pay their own way, and accomplish our apparent goals at the same time. Now lets not kid ourselves, our main goal is to secure cheap oil. Iraq has it, Afghanistan doesn't. With roughly equal populations, we are giving $20 billion to Iraq, $800 million to Afghanistan. Other countries have raised an additional $13 billion for Iraq and $800 million for Afghanistan. Now, lets stop saying "giving" even though they are grants, we are getting something in return.
At this point, the other $67 Billion we are spending this year on operations in Iraq is a drop in the bucket. If you want to measure the true cost of the war, you must look at the lost economic opportunity the war has caused. These costs come from uncertainty in the market and higher oil prices in the short term due to potential or actual disruptions in distribution among others. If I make up a number and say this stunted economic growth by 2 percentage points, it has cost $200 billion this year in lost growth in the US, now compound that over the next 20 years.
Iraq is producing around 2m barrels of oil per day. It is believed possible for this to be increased to 8m barrels a day within 10 years. At the 8m barrel mark that's about $73 Billion in revenues per year, at the $25 per barrel that OPEC likes. With this Iraq should be able to sustain and grow itself... (note: this is more than 10% of world production!) If we are to help Iraq develop themselves into such a crucial part of the world economy, we better as hell develop the country into one that can defend and govern itself as a strategic partner of the US. It's going to take much more than $33 billion in grants to build a country of 25 million and with a debt estimated at $200-$400 billion. It's a good start for this year, but with how much we are spending on other facets of this war it should be more in the future when their is a plan in place, without a plan that money will be spent haphazardly and wasted.
Now, having said all that, I could type all day on why the money would be better spent on wind turbine construction, and fuel cell/hydrogen production research. And I will live my life a moron if I want to.
Posted By:
Seems like a kind of open ended debate, so let me start by saying I believe I am a bigger pile of contradictions than John. But it makes sense to me...
I think it's pointless to argue republican vs. democrat, most are the same within a small margin. Witness how many politicians switch parties. If I were to classify myself I would be a social or commune capitalist. yes, contradictions abound. This picture perfectly describes my world view.
I also think it's pointless to argue that we are spending too much money on the war, or how better that money could be spent. Who are we kidding, it wouldn't be better spent. If we didn't do Afghanistan and Iraq, it would have been wasted on something, and it's a good chance whatever spending would replace it would have been more wasteful then securing cheap stable oil supplies for our future. It would have been very wasteful to spend this money in Alaska instead. I don't agree with the war, I don't agree with the lies that were floated beforehand to garner support and obfuscate the reason behind the war, and I don't agree with the continued lies as to the true scope of the war.
But since it is done, we should do it right. Where is our long term plan? Where is the Marshall Plan for the middle east? Without a plan to guarantee stability there will be no private investment made in Afghanistan or Iraq from abroad. They can't pay their own way, and accomplish our apparent goals at the same time. Now lets not kid ourselves, our main goal is to secure cheap oil. Iraq has it, Afghanistan doesn't. With roughly equal populations, we are giving $20 billion to Iraq, $800 million to Afghanistan. Other countries have raised an additional $13 billion for Iraq and $800 million for Afghanistan. Now, lets stop saying "giving" even though they are grants, we are getting something in return.
At this point, the other $67 Billion we are spending this year on operations in Iraq is a drop in the bucket. If you want to measure the true cost of the war, you must look at the lost economic opportunity the war has caused. These costs come from uncertainty in the market and higher oil prices in the short term due to potential or actual disruptions in distribution among others. If I make up a number and say this stunted economic growth by 2 percentage points, it has cost $200 billion this year in lost growth in the US, now compound that over the next 20 years.
Iraq is producing around 2m barrels of oil per day. It is believed possible for this to be increased to 8m barrels a day within 10 years. At the 8m barrel mark that's about $73 Billion in revenues per year, at the $25 per barrel that OPEC likes. With this Iraq should be able to sustain and grow itself... (note: this is more than 10% of world production!) If we are to help Iraq develop themselves into such a crucial part of the world economy, we better as hell develop the country into one that can defend and govern itself as a strategic partner of the US. It's going to take much more than $33 billion in grants to build a country of 25 million and with a debt estimated at $200-$400 billion. It's a good start for this year, but with how much we are spending on other facets of this war it should be more in the future when their is a plan in place, without a plan that money will be spent haphazardly and wasted.
Now, having said all that, I could type all day on why the money would be better spent on wind turbine construction, and fuel cell/hydrogen production research. And I will live my life a moron if I want to.
Posted By:
